LUCK

In this country that I spent most of my time growing up, a lot of people believes in luck tremendously.

They buy 4D, TOTO, pray to deities for “lucky numbers”, copy down car plate numbers of vehicles involved in accidents etc etc.

People like to talk about today is their lucky day (or unlucky day), some people are successful because they are lucky, some people fail because they are unlucky.

Well, I don’t believe in luck…at least I try not to. I have various valid reasons.

People resign themselves to luck because it is convenient and easy. It is definitely easier to bet your money on a game of dice than to do extensive research on an industry to start your own business after saving up for a few years. It is always easier to blame on an unlucky job interview with someone who supposedly don’t like your face than to reflect on the mistakes made and learn from them. It is easy to spend 2 dollars on a 4D ticket than to use the money and time spent on thinking entrepreneurial ideas. I can go on and on but I am sure you got my point. PEOPLE GET LAZY. “Luck” is a very good excuse to “want” to be successful doing the least work, or a very good thing to blame (or push your blame away )when you fail. You will become a less active man if you are a man who believes in luck.

Next, luck is often associated with something happening although it has a very small probability. Eg. Guessing 7 numbers from 40 numbers in TOTO, being the only graduate in the co-horde to get a manager position, surviving a lightning strike etc…

Well, what is the probability that an albino male mosquito stinks you on Christmas eve night?

Albino mosquito – one in every 100 (prudent example)
Male mosquito sucking blood – one in every 100 (male mosquito usually do not suck blood)
Christmas eve – one in 365 days (prudent, it can be seen as a particular day of your life time to a mathematician)

So probability is 1/100 x 1/100 x 1/365 = 1/3650000.

While I am not sure what is the probably of someone winning TOTO, let just say it’s the same as this figure, which to many is next to impossible.

Would you call yourself lucky or unlucky?

Lucky? Because not many people get a close encounter with such a mosquito.

Unlucky? Because whatever the case, he stunk you and cause itchness on a festive day.

For me, I don’t care. I probably would not even pay attention to what kind of mosquito stunk me. I will just curse when the itch comes.

Because in this case, you don’t see yourself losing or gaining anything that is important according to your upbringing, lifestyle, etc.

But it may be seen as a lucky thing to a research scientists doing albino studies. He may have his skin examine for anything left behind by the mosquito.

My point is, given the same probability of different things happening, it is seen as lucky or unlucky or ignored depending on various people values and point of view.

For a guy who loves army life, going to commandos is lucky, for a guy who hates army life (me), that would be the worst day in my life. For an army cook, getting posted to a combat unit or service unit means nothing to him. He just cooks.

If something unlikely happens and is beneficial to you, you are lucky. Something else with the same probability happens and it compromises you, you are unlucky.
So really, luck is only in your head.

My last reason, for refusing to believe in luck is I believe given enough time and effort, we can understand how everything happens…thus, luck plays only a very very small role in the whole process.

Everything happens for a reason, why Mr X is strike by lightning and not Mr Y. Why someone always get the sack and not someone else. Why are there always more accidents happening on a certain road.

Why do you find money on the floor? Because someone drop it, and it so happens to be worth your while picking it up (I don’t think you will pick up everything people drops)

If no one drops it at the place you will pass by, if the society do not inculcate you what is money, you won’t pick it up. Thus, I believe if we put enough effort in understanding, everything can be “played” like a game.

Eg. NBA basketball. Every player has a statistics, on assists, field goals, free throws, three points etc. Did the coach leave everything to chance? No! he made use of this statistics as well as the opposing team’s statistics and draw up different game strategies. Why do people prefer fouling Shaq than let him shoot?

You might ask, so how do you get statistics of people dropping money, and thus go find the money? I would say the statistics or the research I did shows finding money on the floor is the least profitable (Expected income = probability x average income from finding money on the floor), thus I chose other means to do that. That is also using probability =P.

But definitely no one can ever get the probabilities, statistics of everything right? Well, I would want to believe that we can, maybe certain things are still unexplainable, unresearchable with today’s technologies, but we are evolutionary. That is how we don’t believe in lightning god anymore and stay away from tall tree in a lightning rainy day.

However, luck is often said for politically correctness, and that I can’t complain. You don’t expect some young actors, directors, sportsmen winning some big awards and not mentioning they are lucky. Well, they have to, or they will be seen as very cocky. At least for me, I know they have done their homework to know how to link themselves to where they are now, just like how people perceive money is link to someone dropping money is link to someone else picking it up.

So next time you wanna say you are lucky or not lucky, think again. You are just not using your brain enough.